US Markets Trading Forum Week 20 Feb 2012

[Kenny]

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[Kenny]

[hogster]

FTSE struggling this morning wonder if we'll get those highs.

[Kenny]

US market news

---

The US market was closed Monday for Presidents' Day. On Friday, indices closed mixed. The banks, best performing sector of the week, and retailing sectors traded on the upside while shares in the pharmaceuticals and household & personal products sectors were under pressure. The S&P 500 (1361.23) closed at its best level since April 29, 2011. The index holds above its 20d moving average (1335.6) and its 50d moving average (1292.2). The RSI14 (70.5) pushed back above its overbought threshold (70).

Asian markets were mixed today (Nikkei 225: -0.23%, Hang Seng: +0.25%, China's CSI300: +0.86%, South Korea's KOSPI: -0.03%). European indices are trading lower. Euro area finance ministers have finally agreed on a new bailout plan for Greece. US futures call for a stable start.
Market Hours

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UPS (UPS unchanged at $76.76) has offered to buy TNT Express for E9 per share in cash. Discussions between the parties concerning this proposal are ongoing, although there is currently no certainty that any agreement will be reached. TNT Express said boards have rejected the proposal.

Baidu Inc (BIDU -3.48% to $136.9) posted 4Q sales up 82.5% to 4.47B yuan ($710.9M). Net income gained 76.9% to 2.05B yuan ($326.3M). Baidu currently expects to generate total revenues in an amount ranging from 4.195B yuan ($666.5 M) to 4.330B yuan ($688M) for the current quarter, representing a 72.2% to 77.7% YoY increase.

EOG Resources (EOG -2.78% to $114.35) unveiled 4Q net income of $120.7M or $0.45 a share vs a net income of $53.7M a year earlier. EOG is targeting total Co production growth of 5.5% in 2012 and has increased its total organic liquids production growth forecast from the previously stated 27% to 30%.

Frontier Communications (FTR +7.17% to $4.78) reported 4Q net income of $42.2M or $0.04 per share vs a net income of $46M or $0.05 per share a year earlier. Sales were $1.28B vs $1.36B a year ago. The Co cut its quarterly dividend to $0.1 a share from $0.19 a share.

VCA Antech (WOOF -2.91% to $22.38) said 4Q revenue rose 9.1% YoY to $369M. The Co had a GAAP LPS of $0.04 vs EPS of $0.25 a year ago. Adjusted EPS was $0.21 vs $0.24 a year ago. The Co forecast FY12 revenue of $1.71-$1.76B (FY11: $1.15B), net income of $120.4-$133.7M ($FY11: $95.4M) and diluted EPS of $1.35-$1.50 (FY11: $1.09).

Retail: Ebay (EBAY +1.59% to $35.06), Limited Brands (LTD +1.22% to $46.5), Home Depot (HD +1.7% to $46.71), Dollar Tree (DLTR +1.81% to $89.35), Lowe's Cos (LOW +1.35% to $27.68), Autozone (AZO +0.63% to $360.21), TJX Companies (TJX +1.87% to $34.87) reached a new 52w high.

Nordstrom (JWN -1.99% to $51.14) recorded 4Q net income up 1.7% YoY to $236M or $1.11 a share. Retail sales gained 13% to $3.17B and same-store sales increased 7.1%. The Co expects FY 12 EPS to be $3.30 to $3.45.

HJ Heinz (HNZ +4.55% to $54.47): 3Q EPS ex-items grew 13.1% YoY to $0.95. Sales in the fiscal quarter ended January 25, 2012 rose 7.2% YoY to $2.92B.

Campbell Soup (CPB +2.62% to $32.9): 2Q adjusted EPS fell 10% YoY to $0.64 ($0.62 expected). Sales fell 1% YoY to $2.112B. The Co reaffirmed its FY guidance.

General Mills (GIS -3.62% to $38.34) warned that due to "weak volume performance across US retail food categories in December and January" it revised its 3Q adjusted EPS guidance to $0.54-$0.56 vs $0.56 in the same period a year ago. The Co lowered its FY adjusted EPS guidance to $2.53-$2.55 from $2.59-$2.61.

Gilead Sciences (GILD -14.25% to $47) said in a statement that "the majority of hepatitis C genotype 1 patients with a prior 'null' response to an interferon (IFN)-containing regimen enrolled in the ongoing ELECTRON study experienced viral relapse within four weeks of completing 12 weeks of treatment with GS-7977 plus ribavirin (RBV)."

First Solar (FSLR +7.25% to $42.59) solved a permitting issue for a project in Los Angeles County.

After Hours

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Wal-Mart (WMT): 4Q EPS ex-items was $1.44 ($1.45 expected) vs a Co guidance of $1.42-$1.48 and $1.34 in the same period a year ago. Consolidated operating income was $8.4B, up 5% YoY. The Co forecast FY13 EPS from continuing operations of $4.72-$4.92 vs $4.49 in FY12 ($4.9 consensus). Wal-Mart sees 1Q EPS of $1.01-$1.06 vs $0.97 in the same period a year ago.

Home Depot (HD) announced for its 4Q of fiscal 2011 ended January 29 sales of $16.01B up 5.9% YoY. Comparable store sales were positive 5.7%, and comp sales for US stores were positive 6.1%. Net income was $774M or $0.50 per share ($0.42 expected) compared to $587M or $0.36 per share in the same period a year ago. Looking ahead the Co forecast fiscal 2012 sales growth of appx. 4% with low sing digit comparable store sales growth with 53-week diluted EPS growth before share repurchases of appx. 10% to $2.72 ($2.79 including expected share repurchases) vs a consensus of about $2.77 per share.

Medtronic (MDT): 3Q non GAAP EPS was $0.84, as expected, up 2% YoY. Revenue increased 2% YoY to $3.918B. The Co said it expects its fiscal year 2012 diluted EPS growth to be in the range of 7 to 8%.

Medco Health Solutions (MHS): 4Q adjusted EPS rose 26.3% YoY to $1.25 ($1.17 expected).

Mylan Inc (MYL): 4Q adjusted EPS was $0.53 vs $0.45 in the same period a year ago. Revenue increased 7% YoY to $1.53B.

Kraft Foods (KFT): posted 4Q net revenues up 6.6% YoY to $14.7B (organic growth +6.1%). Operating EPS was $0.57 (as expected), up 23.9% YoY.

SBA Communications (SBAC) has agreed with certain affiliates of Mobilitie, LLC to buy certain entities owning in excess of 2,300 tower sites in the US and Central America and certain indoor and outdoor distributed antenna system (DAS) assets in Chicago, Las Vegas, New York City and Auburn, Alabama. The consideration is $850M in cash and 5.25M shares of SBA Class A common stock.

URS Corp (URS) has agreed to buy Flint Energy Services for C$25 per share in cash or C$1.25B. The transaction is expected to close in the 2Q of 2012, to be accretive to URS' 2012 GAAP earnings, and to increase URS' revenues from the oil and gas sector to approximately 22% of total revenues.

CH Energy (CHG): Fortis Inc, the largest investor-owned distribution utility in Canada, has agreed to buy the Co for $65 per share in cash or appx. $1.5B, including the assumption of appx. $500M of debt.

Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) reported 4Q net income of $26.4M, or $0.13 per share, $126.5M for cash flow from operations and $121M for discretionary cash flow. These compare to 2010 4Q net income of $49.1M, or $0.24 per share, cash flow from operations of $117.4M and discretionary cash flow of $89.8M. Ex-items, 4Q net income would be $40.3M, or $0.20 per share, versus $20M, or $0.10 per share in the comparable 2010 period. The Co said: "we believe it is appropriate to reduce our total capital program by approximately $100M for 2012, with the cuts coming entirely from our natural gas program in order to reduce investments and to fund a slight increase in oil related activity. This will produce a plan for the year that will be within five to ten percent of anticipated cash flow on a $3.00 price deck from the new growth expectations."

Oneok Inc (OKE) announced 4Q diluted EPS of $1.09 compared with $0.76 for the same period last year. Net income was $115M, up 38% YoY. The Co increased its 2012 net income guidance to $360M-$410M from its September 26 2011 guidance of $355M-$400M due to "higher than expected earnings in the Oneok Partners segment offset partially by lower expected earnings in the energy services segment". This updated 2012 earnings guidance includes a projected dividend increase of $0.05 per share in July 2012, subject to Oneok board approval, compared with a previous expectation of a $0.04 per share increase.

Transocean (RIG) expects its 4Q 2011 results to include "a non-cash charge related to the impairment of a substantial portion of the goodwill associated with its contract drilling services reporting unit." Moreover, the Board said it would not propose a dividend at the Co's 2012 AGM. The stock fell 5.1% Monday in Switzerland.

Apple (AAPL): the International Trade Commission said Apple did not infringe HTC technology.

ZTE Corp announced a framework agreement of chipset procurement with Qualcomm (QCOM) for calendar years 2012-2015 worth at least $4B over the period. The Co also announced a procurement framework agreement with Broadcom (BRCM) for no less than $1B over the calendar years 2012-2014.

KLA-Tencor (KLAC) and Lam Research (LRCX) were downgraded to "neutral" from "overweight" at JPMorgan.

Ctrip.com International (CTRP) said 4Q net revenues were 926M yuan ($147M), up 18% YoY. Net income was 253M yuan ($40M), down 16% YoY. Non-GAAP net income was 347M yuan ($55M), down 4% YoY. For the 1Q of 2012, the Co expects net revenue growth YoY at a rate of appx. 15-20%.

Dollar Thrifty Automotive (DTG): 4Q net income was $33.9M or $1.08 per diluted share compared to net income of $12.5M or $0.41 per diluted share in the 4Q of 2010.

Dana Holdings (DAN) said 4Q sales rose to $1.907B from $1.559B in the same period a year ago. Diluted EPS was $0.33 vs a LPS of $0.14 a year ago. The Co forecast FY12 diluted adjusted EPS of $1.95 to $2.05 vs $1.66 in FY11.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN) announced that its Compliance Committee has concluded a year-long investigation after receiving an independent report detailing numerous apparent violations of the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act by Aruze USA, its parent company Universal Entertainment Corporation and its principal shareholder, Kazuo Okada. The Board determined that Aruze USA, Universal Entertainment Corporation and Mr. Okada are "unsuitable" under the provisions of the Company's Articles of Incorporation. The board decided to redeem Okada's 20% stake in the Co. However, Universal Entertainment said it "will take all legal actions necessary to protect its investment and prevent a forced redemption of its shares."

[Kenny]

No major economic data.

###

Dell (DELL): 4Q EPS seen at $0.52 ($0.5 a year ago) on sales of appx. $16B ($15.69B), after mkt.

Other Cos expected to report their results: Intuit (INTU), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Macy's Inc (M), Range Resources (RRC), Genuine Parts (GPC), Expeditors International of Wa. (EXPD), Nabors Industries (NBR), Newfield Exploration Co (NFX)

###

Applied Materials (AMAT): $0.08, Equifax (EFX): $0.18, Invesco Ltd (IVZ): $0.1225, Mattel (MAT): $0.31, Zions Bancorporation (ZION): $0.01

###

57% of S&P500 constituents traded higher Friday.
75% trade above their 20D MA vs 73% Thursday (below the 20D moving average).
80% trade above their 200D MA vs 81% Thursday (above the 20D moving average).

The VIX index eased 1.44pt to 17.78. The spread VIX-VXN closed at a new 3mths low at -1.98.

###

The 10yr yield rose 1.9bp to 2% (above its 20D MA). The 2yr-10yr spread fell 1.9bps to -171bps (below its 20D MA).

###

3mths relative high: none
3mths relative low: Transportation, Pharma. & Bio., Utilities

[Kenny]

US market news

---

US indices closed mixed on Tuesday. The technology hardware & equipment, best sector over the last 5 sessions, energy and telecommunications sectors gained ground while stocks in the food & staples retailing, consumer durables & apparel and real estate sectors fell. The S&P 500 (1362.21) closed at its best level since April 29, 2011. The index holds above its 20d moving average (1337.9) and its 50d moving average (1294.3). The RSI14 (70.8) remains above its overbought threshold (70).

Asian markets were slightly up today (Nikkei 225: +0.96%, Hang Seng: +0.33%, China's CSI300: +1.37%, South Korea's KOSPI: +0.22%). European indices are consolidating after lower than expected PMI reports in the Eurozone. US futures call for a soft start.
Market Hours

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Retail: Ebay (EBAY +0.23% to $35.14), Nordstrom (JWN +3.23% to $52.79), TJX Companies (TJX +1% to $35.22), Lowe's Cos (LOW +0.29% to $27.76) reached a new 52w high.

Macy's Inc (M +1.21% to $36.69): adjusted diluted EPS was $1.70 for the 13-week fourth quarter of 2011, ended Jan. 28, 2012 compared to $1.59 in the same period a year ago. Sales totaled $8.724B, up 5.5% YoY. Same-store growth was +5.2%. Looking ahead, the Co said: "assuming same-store sales growth of approximately 3.5 percent in fiscal 2012. Guidance for earnings per diluted share in fiscal 2012 is $3.25 to $3.30." (FY11: $2.92 or $2.88 as adjusted). The stock reached a new 52w high.

Wal-Mart (WMT -3.86% to $60.07): 4Q EPS ex-items was $1.44 ($1.45 expected) vs a Co guidance of $1.42-$1.48 and $1.34 in the same period a year ago. Consolidated operating income was $8.4B, up 5% YoY. The Co forecast FY13 EPS from continuing operations of $4.72-$4.92 vs $4.49 in FY12 ($4.9 consensus). Wal-Mart sees 1Q EPS of $1.01-$1.06 vs $0.97 in the same period a year ago.

Home Depot (HD +0.45% to $46.92) announced for its 4Q of fiscal 2011 ended January 29 sales of $16.01B up 5.9% YoY. Comparable store sales were positive 5.7%, and comp sales for US stores were positive 6.1%. Net income was $774M or $0.50 per share ($0.42 expected) compared to $587M or $0.36 per share in the same period a year ago. Looking ahead the Co forecast fiscal 2012 sales growth of appx. 4% with low sing digit comparable store sales growth with 53-week diluted EPS growth before share repurchases of appx. 10% to $2.72 ($2.79 including expected share repurchases) vs a consensus of about $2.77 per share. The stock reached a new 52w high.

Medtronic (MDT -2.38% to $38.99): 3Q non GAAP EPS was $0.84, as expected, up 2% YoY. Revenue increased 2% YoY to $3.918B. The Co said it expects its fiscal year 2012 diluted EPS growth to be in the range of 7 to 8%.

Mylan Inc (MYL -3.07% to $22.7): 4Q adjusted EPS was $0.53 vs $0.45 in the same period a year ago. Revenue increased 7% YoY to $1.53B.

Kraft Foods (KFT +1.47% to $38.57): posted 4Q net revenues up 6.6% YoY to $14.7B (organic growth +6.1%). Operating EPS was $0.57 (as expected), up 23.9% YoY.

Genuine Parts (GPC -2.7% to $63.81): 4Q sales increased 7% YoY to $3B. Diluted EPS rose 15% YoY to $0.86.

SBA Communications (SBAC +1.62% to $47.02) has agreed with certain affiliates of Mobilitie, LLC to buy certain entities owning in excess of 2,300 tower sites in the US and Central America and certain indoor and outdoor distributed antenna system (DAS) assets in Chicago, Las Vegas, New York City and Auburn, Alabama. The consideration is $850M in cash and 5.25M shares of SBA Class A common stock.

URS Corp (URS +4.52% to $44.85) has agreed to buy Flint Energy Services for C$25 per share in cash or C$1.25B. The transaction is expected to close in the 2Q of 2012, to be accretive to URS' 2012 GAAP earnings.

CH Energy (CHG +12.68% to $66.22): Fortis Inc, the largest investor-owned distribution utility in Canada, has agreed to buy the Co for $65 per share in cash or appx. $1.5B, including the assumption of appx. $500M of debt.

Cobalt International Energy (CIE -6.05% to $31.97) reported a 4Q net loss of $51M or $0.13 per diluted share compared to a net loss of $30M or $0.09 per diluted share for the 4Q of 2010.

Weatherford International (WFT -13.66% to $15.36) posted 4Q revenue of $3.71B vs $2.92B in the same period a year ago. Non GAAP net income was $351.6M vs $284.6M a year ago.

KLA-Tencor (KLAC -3.91% to $48.21) and Lam Research (LRCX -3.33% to $40.58) were downgraded to "neutral" from "overweight" at JPMorgan.

Ctrip.com International (CTRP -7.01% to $22.96) said 4Q net revenues were 926M yuan ($147M), up 18% YoY. Net income was 253M yuan ($40M), down 16% YoY. Non-GAAP net income was 347M yuan ($55M), down 4% YoY. For the 1Q of 2012, the Co expects net revenue growth YoY at a rate of appx. 15-20%.

Choice Hotels International (CHH +3.6% to $36.88): 4Q adjusted EPS increased 10% YoY to $0.46.

Dollar Thrifty Automotive (DTG +2.43% to $75.14): 4Q net income was $33.9M or $1.08 per diluted share compared to net income of $12.5M or $0.41 per diluted share in the 4Q of 2010.

Dana Holdings (DAN -2.98% to $15.96) said 4Q sales rose to $1.907B from $1.559B in the same period a year ago. Diluted EPS was $0.33 vs a LPS of $0.14 a year ago. The Co forecast FY12 diluted adjusted EPS of $1.95 to $2.05 vs $1.66 in FY11.

Mosaic (MOS +2.3% to $56.91) was rated "buy" at Goldman Sachs.

After Hours

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Dell (DELL) posted 4Q adjusted EPS of $0.51 vs $0.52 expected and $0.53 a year ago on revenue of $16.03B vs $15.69B a year ago. Non GAAP net income fell 10% to $913M. For its FY13, the CO expects non-GAAP EPS to exceed the record $2.13 reached in FY12. For its 1Q, the Co expects revenue to decline appx. 7% QoQ.

Brocade Communications Systems (BRCD) posted 1Q EPS of $0.20 vs EPS of $0.16 a year ago. 1Q sales were $561M, up 2% QoQ and up 3% YoY. The Co expects 2Q EPS of $0.11-$0.12, and 2Q sales of $530M-$545M.

Intuit (INTU) reported 2Q adjusted EPS of $0.51 vs EPS of $0.32 a year earlier on sales up 16% to $1.019B. The Co raised its 3Q and FY adjusted EPS forecasts. Intuit now expects 3Q adjusted EPS to be $2.47-$2.51 vs $2.45-$2.50 previously. It sees FY adjusted EPS of $2.90-$2.97 vs $2.85-$2.94 initially. The Co reiterated its sales forecast.

Dollar Tree (DLTR): consolidated net sales for the fourth quarter were $1.95B, up 12.8% YoY. Comparable store sales increased 7.3%. Diluted EPS was $1.60 vs $1.29 in the same period a year ago.

Windstream (WIN) said 4Q pro forma revenues were $1.6B, up 0.7% YoY and adjusted OIBDA rose 0.4% YoY to $612M. The Co forecast 2012 pro forma revenues of $6.180-$6.305B (-1% to +1% YoY) and pro forma adjusted OIBDA of $2.43-$2.50B (-0.2% to +2.7% YoY).

Garmin (GRMN) posted 4Q revenue of $910M, up 9% YoY. Pro forma EPS rose 16% YoY to $0.96. The Co forecast FY12 revenue of $2.7-$2.8B (FY11: $2.76B) and pro forma EPS of $2.45-$2.60 (FY11: $2.73).

Chico's FAS (CHS): 4Q EPS rose 25% YoY to $0.15. Comparable store sales rose 8.7%.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)'s Board has named Alex Gorsky CEO effective April 26, 2012, the date of the Co's AGM. Mr. Gorsky is currently Vice Chairman of the Co's Executive Committee and succeeds Bill Weldon who will remain Chairman of the Board of Directors.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) unveiled 4Q net income of $429M or $0.63 per share vs $180M or $0.28 per share a year ago. Adjusted EPS was $0.58 vs $0.70 a year ago.

Range Resources (RRC) said FY non GAAP net income was $176M or $1.11 per diluted share vs $89M or $0.56 per diluted share in the same period a year ago.

Expeditors International of Wa. (EXPD) recorded 4Q net income of $92.8M, down 4%. 4Q sales rose 5% to $476.2M. Adjusted EPS was $0.43 vs EPS of $0.45 a year earlier.

Nabors Industries (NBR) announced 4Q net income from continuing operations of $89.5M vs $152.1M a year earlier. 4Q sales were $1.74B vs $1.32B a year ago.

Newfield Exploration Co (NFX) recorded 4Q net income of $68M, or $0.51 per diluted share.

General Motors (GM) may be in talks with PSA Peugeot Citroen about an alliance reported LaTribune.fr. The French carmaker confirmed talks but not the identity of the other party. PSA is up about 13% in heavy volume.

Citigroup (C) "is facing a multibillion-dollar write-down as it begins unwinding its minority investment in the Morgan Stanley Smith Barney brokerage" reported the WSJ.

[Kenny]

US 07:00: 02/17 MBA Mortgage Applications
US 10:00: Jan Existing Home Sales, exp.: 4.66M

##

Hewlett Packard (HPQ): 1Q EPS seen at $0.87 ($1.22 a year ago) on sales of appx. $30.8B ($32.3B), after mkt.

TJX Companies (TJX): 4Q EPS seen at $0.63 ($0.53 a year ago), before mkt.

Express Scripts (ESRX): 4Q EPS seen at $0.85 ($0.66 a year ago), after mkt.

Williams (WMB): 4Q EPS seen at $0.41 ($0.3 a year ago), after mkt.

Limited Brands (LTD): 4Q EPS seen at $1.46 ($1.26 a year ago), after mkt.

Analog Devices (ADI): 1Q EPS seen at $0.48 ($0.7 a year ago) on sales of appx. $660M ($729M), after mkt.

Other Cos expected to report their results: Fluor Corp (FLR), Avago Technologies (AVGO), Flowserve Corp (FLS), QEP Resources (QEP), AGL Resources (GAS), Washington Post (WPO), RR Donnelley & Sons (RRD)

##

Allergan (AGN): $0.05, Avon Products (AVP): $0.23, Carnival (CCL): $0.25, Cummins (CMI): $0.4, Limited Brands (LTD): $0.25, Marriott International (MAR): $0.1, QEP Resources (QEP): $0.02, Robert Half (RHI): $0.15, Snap On Inc (SNA): $0.34, The Hershey Company (HSY): $0.38

##

40% of S&P500 constituents traded higher yesterday.
73% trade above their 20D MA vs 75% Friday (above the 20D moving average).
80% trade above their 200D MA vs 80% Friday (above the 20D moving average).

The VIX index added 0.41pt to 18.19.

##

The 10yr yield rose 5.7bps to 2.06% (above its 20D MA).
The 2yr-10yr spread fell 4.9bps to -176bps (below its 20D MA).

##

3mths relative high: Tech. Hardware
3mths relative low: Food & Staples Retail., Transportation, Pharma. & Bio., Utilities

[Kenny]

[hogster]

Markets look to be struggling to my eye but upper targets not reached yet.

[hogster]

Markets look to be struggling to my eye but upper targets not reached yet.

Why is is when I make a comment like that the market puts in a big grenn candle.(FTSE)

[Kenny]

..........this week I am looking for the best short entry that I can get. Ideally in the 1376-80 zone but may come in slightly lower as the 1370 level could remain intact. Time cycles suggest a CIT early in the week......

http://financial-trader-online.trade...ull=1#post3999


Not breaking 1370 was the 'Maximum Confusion' option....

Still can't rule it out but looking less likely now as it looks like the CIT came in right on time.

[Kenny]

Now through noon Wednesday, Feb. 29 you can get unrestricted access to all the charts, analysis and video forecasts for the world's most traded currency pairs from EWI's Currency Specialty Service.
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[Kenny]

GE 10:00: Feb IFO - Business Climate, exp.: 108.8
GE 10:00: Feb IFO - Current Assessment, exp.: 116.5
GE 10:00: Feb IFO - Expectations, exp.: 102
UK 10:30: Jan BBA Loans for House Purchase, exp.: 36250
UK 12:00: Feb CBI Trends Total Orders, exp.: -13
UK 12:00: Feb CBI Trends Selling Prices, exp.: 12
US 14:30: Feb 18 Initial Jobless Claims, exp.: 355K
US 14:30: Feb 11 Continuing Claims, exp.: 3480K
US 16:00: Dec House Price Idx MoM, exp.: 0.1%
US 16:00: 4Q House Price Purchase Idx QoQ, exp.: 0.2%
US 17:00: Feb Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, exp.: 9

[Kenny]

GE 08:00: 4Q Domestic Demand
GE 08:00: 4Q Exports, exp.: -1.4%
GE 08:00: 4Q Capital Investment, exp.: 0.5%
GE 08:00: 4Q Government Spending, exp.: 0%
GE 08:00: 4Q Construction Investment
GE 08:00: 4Q Imports, exp.: -0.9%
GE 08:00: 4Q Private Consumption, exp.: -0.1%
GE 08:00: 4Q F GDP SA QoQ, exp.: -0.2%
FR 08:45: Feb Consumer Conf. Indicator, exp.: 82
UK 10:30: 4Q P GDP QoQ, exp.: -0.2%
UK 10:30: 4Q P Private Consumption, exp.: 0.2%
UK 10:30: 4Q P Government Spending, exp.: 0%
UK 10:30: 4Q P Gross Fixed Capital Formation, exp.: -0.9%
UK 10:30: 4Q P Exports, exp.: 1.5%
UK 10:30: 4Q P Imports, exp.: 0.1%
UK 10:30: Dec Idx of Services MoM, exp.: 0.1%
UK 10:30: Dec Idx of Services (3mth/3mth), exp.: 0%
UK 10:30: 4Q P Total Business Investment QoQ, exp.: -0.4%
US 15:55: Feb F U. of Michigan Conf., exp.: 73
US 16:00: Jan New Home Sales, exp.: 315K
US 16:00: Jan New Home Sales MoM, exp.: 2.6%
FR 18:00: Jan Jobseekers- Net Change, exp.: 30
FR 18:00: Jan Total Jobseekers

[Kenny]

[Kenny]

US market news

---

US indices rose helped by gains in the household & personal products, diversified financials and real estate sectors. The S&P 500 (1363.46) closed at its best level since April 29, 2011. The index holds above its 20d moving average (1341.9) and its 50d moving average (1298.9). The RSI14 (69.3) remained just below its overbought threshold (70) and is drawing a bearish divergence with the index.

Asian markets were up today (Nikkei 225: +0.54%, Hang Seng: +0.12%, China's CSI300: +1.6%, South Korea's KOSPI: +0.6%). European indices are mixed and US futures call for a soft start.
Market Hours

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Technology: Qualcomm (QCOM +1.53% to $63.51), Verisign (VRSN +1.39% to $37.97), IBM (IBM +1.93% to $197.61) and LSI Corp (LSI +2.64% to $8.55) reached a new 52w high.

Hewlett Packard (HPQ -6.53% to $27.05) reported 1Q adjusted EPS of $0.92 vs $0.87 expected and $1.36 a year ago on revenue of $30.04B vs $30.75B expected and $32.3B a year ago. The Co expects 2Q adjusted EPS to be $0.88-$0.91 ($0.94 expected).

Avago Technologies (AVGO +3.59% to $37.19) unveiled 1Q adjusted EPS of $0.62 vs $0.65 a year earlier and $0.73 in the previous quarter. Sales were $563M, up 2% YoY and down 10% QoQ. For 2Q, the Co expects modest revenue growth and sees capital expenditures in the range of $52M to $57M.

Target (TGT +2.89% to $54.5) said 4Q adjusted EPS was $1.49 and FY adjusted EPS $4.41 up 8.3% and 14.3% YoY, respectively.

Sears Holding (SHLD +18.66% to $61.8) said Sears Domestic's comparable store sales declined 4.1% in the 4Q, Kmart's comparable store sales declined 2.7% and Sears Canada's comparable store sales declined 7.5%. Adjusted earnings per diluted share from continuing operations were $0.54 vs $3.67 a year ago. The Co also announced a set of new measures to further enhance its liquidity and improve its operating performance.

Ebay (EBAY +3.89% to $36.02), TJX Companies (TJX +2.28% to $35.93), Nordstrom (JWN +1.18% to $53.25), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY +1.92% to $86.4) reached a new 52w high.

Procter & Gamble (PG +3.07% to $66.42) announced new measures to boost its profitability.

Limited Brands (LTD +1.17% to $46.01) recorded 4Q EPS of $1.17 vs $1.36 a year ago on revenue of $3.52B vs $3.4B a year ago. The Co sees 1Q EPS of $0.35-$0.40 and FY EPS of $2.60-$2.80. It announced a $500M share repurchase program. Limited Brands expects to report a February comparable store sales increase in the mid to high single digit range, versus its previous estimate of up low single digits.

Kohl's (KSS -5.9% to $49.11): 4Q diluted EPS rose 9% YoY to $1.81 and net income fell 8% YoY to $455M. Net sales were $6B, down 0.3% YoY and comparable store sales decreased 2.1%.

Safeway (SWY -7.59% to $20.95) reported 4Q EPS of $0.67 vs $0.62 in the same period a year ago.

Fluor Corp (FLR +6.01% to $63.99) said 4Q adjusted was $0.90 vs $0.66 a year ago sales of $6.25B vs $5.27B a year earlier. The Co is maintaining its EPS guidance for 2012 at the previously announced range of $3.40 to $3.80.

Flowserve (FLS +2.29% to $120.49) reported 4Q EPS of $2.25, up 12.5% on sales of $1.27B, up 11%. The Co expects a 5-7% revenue growth in 2012. It also announced a 12.5% increase in quarterly cash dividend from $0.32 per share to $0.36 per share.

Hormel Foods Corp (HRL -2.24% to $28.39): 1Q diluted EPS was $0.48, down 13% YoY. Sales rose 6% to $2B.

QEP Resources (QEP +7.79% to $34.03) posted 4Q adjusted EPS of $0.58 vs $0.25 a year ago. The Co expects 2012 adjusted Ebitda to range from $1.35B to $1.45B, compared to a previously forecasted range of $1.45B to $1.55B.

Denbury Resources (DNR +5.5% to $20.72) announced 4Q adjusted net income of $175M or $0.45 per diluted share compared to $87M or $0.22 per diluted share in the same period a year ago.

WPX Energy (WPX +3.37% to $19.04) reported for the 4Q of 2011 a net loss of $338M or $1.72 per diluted share compared with net income of $12M or $0.06 per diluted share for the 4Q of 2010. The Co took a charge of $547M for impairments of goodwill, producing properties and costs of acquired unproved reserves.

Polypore International (PPO -11.28% to $38.61): 4Q sales increased 13% YoY to $191M and adjusted EPS 35% to $0.58.

Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR +7.83% to $37.46) recorded 4Q adjusted EPS of $0.48 vs $0.10 a year earlier on sales of $75.5M vs $29.3M a year ago.

HomeAway (AWAY -7.83% to $24.01) announced 4Q revenue up 28.5% YoY to $58.5M. The Co's adjusted et loss $256K or $0.00 per diluted share compared to a net loss of $10.6M or $0.27 per diluted share in the 4Q of 2010. The Co forecast 1Q revenue in the range of $63.7M to $64M and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $13M to $13.1M.

MetroPCS Communications (PCS +13.81% to $11.7) posted 4Q adjusted EBITDA of $362M up 15% YoY.

Liberty Media (LINTA +2.34% to $18.39) said its 4Q revenue increased 96% YoY to $1B, adjusted OIBDA 205% to $323M and operating income 241% to $293M.

After Hours

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Citigroup (C) has sold 145.3M shares in Housing Development Finance Corporation, representing its entire 9.85% stake, for INR 657.56 per share. Total proceeds from the transaction are expected to be $1.9B at the current exchange rate, resulting in a pre-tax gain to Citigroup of $1.1B, and an after-tax gain of approximately $722M.

AIG (AIG) posted a 4Q after-tax operating EPS of $0.82 vs a LPS of $15.99 a year earlier and an EPS of $0.59 expected. 4Q net income was up 77% to $19.8B, or $10.43 a share helped by a deferred tax asset valuation release of $17.7B.

Bank of America (BAC) disclosed in a SEC filing that it will stop selling new mortgages to Fannie Mae.

El Paso (EP): Apollo Global Management may be close to buy the Co's oil and gas exploration unit for appx. $7B (Wall Street Journal).

Newmont Mining (NEM) unveiled a 4Q net loss of $1.03B vs a net income of $812M a year earlier. Adjusted EPS was $1.17 vs $1.16 a year earlier. 2012 attributable gold production is expected to be appx. 5M to 5.2M ounces, with attributable copper production of 150M to 170M pounds.

Wynn Resorts (WYNN): Wynn Macau announced the removal of Kazuo Okada as non-executive director.

Salesforce.com (CRM) reported 4Q adjusted EPS of $0.43 vs $0.31 a year earlier and $0.40 expected, on revenue of $632M vs $457M a year ago and vs $624M expected. The Co expects 1Q EPS to be $0.33-$0.34. FY EPS is seen at $1.58-$1.62. Salesforce.com raised its FY sales guidance to $2.92B-$2.95B vs $2.88B-$2.92B previously.

Marvell Technology (MRVL) recorded 4Q adjusted EPS of $0.21 vs $0.17 expected ($0.40 a year ago) on revenue of $743M vs $900M a year ago. The Co expects 1Q adjusted EPS of $0.18-$0.22.

Autodesk (ADSK) unveiled 4Q adjusted EPS of $0.46 vs $0.45 expected and $0.35 a year ago on revenue of $592.4M vs $527.7M a year ago. The Co sees 1Q adjusted EPS of $0.46-$0.48.

Public Storage (PSA) said 4Q EPS was $0.96, in-line with estimates, vs EPS of $0.71 a year ago. 4Q Same-store sales were up 5% to $382M. 4Q FFO (Funds From Operations: net income before depreciation with respect to real estate assets and gains and losses on real estate assets) was $1.50 per share vs $1.33 per share a year earlier. The Co proposes 4Q dividend of $1.10 a share vs $0.95 a share in the previous quarter.

Gap (GPS) reported 4Q net income down 40% to $218M, or $0.44 a share. Sales were 4.3B vs $4.4B a year earlier. Same-store sales were down 4% compared with a 1% increase a year ago. The Co announced a new $1B share repurchase authorization and a plan to increase the annual dividend per share by 11%, from $0.45 in fiscal year 2011 to $0.50 for fiscal year 2012.

Northeast Utilities (NU) unveiled 4Q net income of $113.3M, or $0.64 a share, vs a profit of £129.3M a year earlier. Ex-items, 4Q EPS was $0.74 vs $0.69 a year ago. 4Q sales fell 11% to $1.07B.

Deckers Outdoor (DECK) recorded 4Q EPS of $3.18 vs $2.27 a year earlier, on sales up 40% to $603.9M. The Co sees 1Q sales up 19% and 1Q EPS to be down 50%. Deckers Outdoors expects for 2012 a 15% increase in sales, EPS to be flat YoY, and a gross margin decline of 200 basis points.

Crocs (CROX) reported 4Q net income of $5.6M, or $0.06 a share, vs a profit of $4.7M a year earlier. 4Q sales were up 14% to $203.7M. The Co expects 1Q sales to be in the range of $263M to $268M and EPS to be between $0.24 and $0.26.

Monster Beverage (MNST) said its 4Q net sales increased 28.7% YoY to $410M. Net income was $64.5M or $0.35 per share compared to $49.1M or $0.26 per share in the same period a year ago.

Interpublic Group (IPG): 4Q diluted EPS was $0.50, up 39% YoY.

Pepco Holdings (POM): 4Q adjusted EPS was $0.15 vs $0.19 expected and $0.25 a year ago. The Co forecast FY12 EPS of $1.15 to $1.30 (FY11 GAAP EPS: $1.15, non GAAP: $1.25).

Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) reported a 4Q loss from continuing operations of $733.3M or $3.34 per diluted share compared to income from continuing operations of $11M or $0.09 per diluted share in the 4Q of 2010. Ex-items the loss was $16M or $0.07 per share.

Warner Chilcott (WCRX) said 4Q revenue fell 7% YoY to $646M. Cash net income increased 17% YoY to $241M.

[Kenny]

JC Penney (JCP): 4Q EPS seen at $0.67 ($1.17 a year ago).

Pinnacle West Capital (PNW): 4Q EPS seen at $0.04 ($0.06 a year ago).

Other Co expected to report its results: Washington Post (WPO)

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Dun & Bradstreet (DNB): $0.38, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): $0.57, Keycorp (KEY): $0.03

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70% of S&P500 constituents traded higher yesterday.
67% trade above their 20D MA vs 65% Wednesday (below the 20D moving average).
81% trade above their 200D MA vs 79% Wednesday (above the 20D moving average).

The VIX index eased 1.39pt to 16.8, a new 3mths low.

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The 10yr yield fell 0.7bp to 2% (above its 20D MA). The 2yr-10yr spread rose 1.1bp to -169bps (below its 20D MA).

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3mths relative high: none
3mths relative low: Food & Staples Retail., Utilities

[baaa]

looks like another up week but the room for manoeuvre gets ever smaller and good odds on a breakout one way or another next week . Presumably it'll close today at 1370 !